I have to say 2 of the contestants who were eliminated were completely shocking to me. Katelyn Epperly and Lilly Scott – when each was announced I literally gasped and could not believe my ears. I thought for certain Paige and Katie would go home tonight. Granted Lilly’s country song this week did not showcase her well and was a poor choice, but it was a total surprise to me.

I wasn’t surprised that Alex Lambert did not make the top 12 nor Todrick, but I did think they both performed well last night.

So now we’re down to the top 12 contestants on American Idol and the fun really begins.

Matt Giraud did a great job in his performance and I felt he had become so much more refined and comfortable performing – it reminded me of why I liked him so much last season. And Scott McIntyre was about the same as when he was on Idol – just not my favorite performer.

Anyway, I’d be curious to know if anyone else was taken off guard by tonight’s elimination vote… let me know your thoughts.

After the performances last night from the American Idol guys, do you think your favorite is safe?

This season I have felt the guys have been stronger overall than the girls.

I love Lee Dewyze. His voice is so cool and has lots of soul. He had some pitch issues last night, but I still like him a lot. I agreed with Simon that he was better than the song last night. I could easily see him making an awesome album and it would be one I would buy – since his voice is so distinct it would be easy to have him stand out from others.

Alex Lambert. I actually like his voice and love that the guys all seem to have such different sounds. It’s been fun to see his confidence levels go up each week. He’s a cute kid and I think he could make a pretty good album – but I’m not sure he’s a contender for the American Idol title winner this season as he has a long way to go for his performance.

Tim Urban. Ellen gave Tim a hug this week because he did so good. I actually agreed that he did a great job. He is such a darling kid and I could completely see him becoming a teen heart throb. He still seems nervous and scared when the judges give him critiques, and the past weeks he has struggled. I would have predicted last week that he was at risk, but after last night’s performance he may be safe.

Andrew Garcia. I agreed with the judges that his “Straight Up” performance during Hollywood week was a huge bar he set for himself, and he hasn’t showcased himself up to that level since then. As an early favorite, I can see why people like him as he’s very talented. But as others have shown growth and improvement each week, I’m not sure he has. His song last night was good, but a bit boring for me – it didn’t have a “moment” or anything that blew me away.

Casey James. I was glad Casey went the country route again this week – as his Jimmy Hendrix style from last week distracted me with the electric guitar and I didn’t enjoy his vocals – plus I felt that it wasn’t as true to his style. However, with that being said, I’m not sure why songs are selected that are ballads without any wow factor – the song was a bit slow and not very dynamic for me. He sang it well though. I know he’s liked, but I also think that Kara’s gushing over him each week has gotten out of control and may have hurt his chances at showing his personality and connecting with the audience – as the focus is more on her reaction.

Aaron Kelly. Wondering why Aaron chose a country song – it just didn’t work for me. He’s so young and I think will have the pre-teen vote, but he does have a long way to go for experience and confidence – as well as truly learning the kind of artist he wants to be. The performance was rocky and pitchy for me and I predict he’s at risk to go home this week. I did feel so bad for Ellen DeGeneres after she gave Aaron her less than gushing feedback – his reaction felt a bit emotional and I could see her feeling bad about it. She’s mentioned many times that she tries to be nice even when the performance’s aren’t great – but it’s obviously difficult for her to provide the negative feedback. I like that about her – that she is honest and doesn’t take pleasure in cutting someone down. Simon’s praise bought back Aaron’s smile though so that discomfort only lasted a moment. I’ll be interested to hear Ellen on her show and see if she makes any comments on the subject.

Todrick Hall. The start of Todrick’s version of “Somebody to Love” by Queen last night was a bit shaky. I like him and would love to see him dance. I did appreciate the energy of his song – as some of the other performance were quite slow and without much enthusiasm. He did a pretty good job. I’m not sure he’s safe though. There have been so many great guys this American Idol season, and at this point I think each guy has a fan base and is so unique, it’s hard to predict with full confidence who will be going home tonight.

(Just an aside: One of the fun things as I write my commentary… is to write it and then listen to the judges… the fun part is to hear when the judges say almost exactly the same thing I just wrote.)

Michael Lynch. I just love Michael Lynch. Obviously I loved him during Hollywood week and seeing his tenderness at becoming a new daddy. He’s simply loveable. Darling guy. Great personality. Enthusiasm. And boy that guy can sing. He’s so refined and I think is completely in a different class than the other contestants – he’s like a seasoned performer and I can’t wait to buy his album. I’m thinking he’s the next American Idol unless someone else breaks away from the pack.

So… my predictions for who will be going home tonight from American Idol?

Some are easier than others: Aaron Kelly, and Katie Stevens and Paige Miles are my easy picks. Perhaps Todrick Hall, Tim Urban, or Alex Lambert will be the other one to go home.

Who do you think is at risk?